Let me start out by saying that I wasn’t very clear in Part 1 about my stance on the particular guys I picked out. By me talking about those guys I didn’t necessarily mean that they shouldn’t have gotten drafted where they did or that if they did get drafted that it was a reach (though some were definitely a reach.) I do however think that most of those guys were drafted for their upside/potential, not for what they could actually bring to the table immediately. My definition of potential is not a guy that has shown no ability whatsoever and then turns into a beast in the pro’s, but rather a guy that many see as one who can’t make it in the pro’s or even one who many think can make it in the pro’s but still hasn’t fully developed yet (Jamarcus Russell.)
A few more clarifying points that were brought to my attention by TBrown:
1. No I would not have drafted Robert Meachem with the #9 overall pick. My simple point there was that I think he is a better true WR that can also help with special teams, whereas I believe Ginn is a better true special teamer that can be a decent WR. I would have not taken a WR at #9 (based on the WR’s in this draft), I would have taken Patrick Willis. Keep in mind Dwayne Bowe was taken #23 overall also. I simply said Meachem because of his speed and ability to make plays on special teams as well, which is obviously what the Dolphins were going after.
2. Joe Flacco- In my Flacco commentary I said something about how at Delaware he proved nothing except how accurate he was. That was very poorly phrased because I meant he proved a lot especially how accurate he was/is. I love Flacco and he has proven to be a very good quarterback. My reasoning for putting him in the list was because he played for The University of Delaware and didn’t face the competition that a Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, or a Chad Henne did. Obviously the Ravens made the right choice at that pick.
3. I would have taken Jamarcus #1 overall just like the Raiders. He had (maybe still has) huge upside. I see nothing wrong with the Raiders pick there. Maybe he could have come in and contributed immediately, who knows. No one ever will because he’s another guy that held out of training camp which only hurt him obviously. I will say that I don’t blame the team around him for his lack of success. I would gladly like to build a team with McFadden, Michael Bush, Zach Miller, and their young WR’s.
Ok now moving on to my NBA portion of this blog. I’m sure some of you will disagree with me about this part as well but we’ll see. Like I did before in the NFL section, I picked out a few guys from the 2007-2009 NBA drafts to talk about that I think were drafted mainly on potential/upside than they were for actual skill set. Let me also say that just because I list these guys doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or think they’ll turn out to be good NBA players.
2009 NBA Draft
Earl Clark- #14 overall- If anything I was a little surprised Clark dropped to #14. Clark seriously considered entering the draft after his sophomore year but held off. He averaged 15 ppg and 9rpg his junior year. Many people think he has huge upside and I definitely agree. Anytime a 6’9 guy can play the 2,3, and 4 spot he’s ok in my book. I can see him being a less athletic Shawn Marion in the Suns’ system.
Austin Daye- #15 overall- Austin Daye proved nothing to me in college except that he was super tall and super skinny. I feel like Nate Robinson would own Daye in the post. Once again though, its hard to turn down a 6’11 guy that can play the 3, 4, and 5 (if he beefs up) positions. He’s not a great rebounder probably because of his lack of weight and is an inconsistent scorer. Daye did play well however in the summer league.
See also: Jordan Hill
2008 NBA Draft
Danilo Gallinari- #6 overall- Gallinari is a 6’9, 220 pound sg/sf. Of course there were the comparisons to Dirk because apparently any sg/sf that comes from overseas and is above 6’9 is the next Dirk. Gallinari only got in 28 games last year and averaged 6ppg. Gallinari is apparently dominating in training camp and is fully healthy. Gallinari is a pick I have a problem with. Look at the 2008 NBA Draft board. There are plenty of guys I would have taken over him.
Javale McGee- #18 overall- McGee is a 7 footer that is pretty thin. He played two years of college and during his soph year he averaged 14ppg and 7rpg for The University of Nevada. McGee is definitely a project because of how thin he is and undeveloped he is in the post. McGee had a solid first year however averaging 6.5 ppg and 4 rpg. The young fella got a decent amount of playing time due to the Wizards’ whole starting lineup being injured for the majority of the year. McGee looks to be like he will turn into a good pick for the Wizards.
See also: Jason Thompson, Anthony Randolph
2007 NBA Draft
Yi Jianlian- #6 overall- Jianlian was supposed to impact the league just like Yao did. Jianlian is 7’0 and has decent weight on him. The Bucks only spent one year on him and then traded him to the Nets. Jianlian’s stats really haven’t been horrible (9 ppg, 5 rpg, 34% 3pt), but definitely not worthy of the #6 pick. This is another situation where the Bucks were hoping Jianlian would turn out like Yao or Dirk and have a huge upside but he didn’t. I’m sure the Bucks would have been happy if he even turned out to be the next Peja.
Javaris Crittenton- #19 overall- 14ppg, 6rpg, 4apg in his only year in college. At the time I loved this pick for the Lakers. Honestly I still think it was the right pick. Crittenton didn’t have the best individual pre-draft workouts but he was pretty dominant as a freshman in college and the Lakers needed a point guard. Crittenon is one of the main examples of why I love the NFL draft rule (3 years removed from high school) and hate the NBA rule (one year removed from high school.) Crittenton’s career is far from over though. He played well down the stretch with the Wizards last year and is still only 21. He is crazy athletic and is a true scorer, maybe he can live up to the hype if he catches on with the right team.
See also: Brandan Wright
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
Drafting on Potential Part 1
When the time comes for your favorite team to draft, do you want them to take the guy with the most upside or the guy that can help you right away? Within the past few years it seems like more and more teams are drafting on potential rather than stats (from college.) When it comes to the NFL, a great NFL combine workout can jump a guy that’s not getting drafted all the way into the top few rounds. We all know what a sub-4.4 time can do for a guy. As far as the NBA sometimes all that matter is that you’re over 6’9, can play guard, and averaged 5 pppg in the Euroleague you played in. Don’t get me wrong plenty of teams are willing to take chances on NCAA Division 1 7’footers but these guys usually show their potential during their college year/years.
I looked at the NFL and NBA Drafts from 2007-2009 and picked out guys that I think we’re drafted on potential. Sure some of them had decent college careers but nowhere near worthy of how their draft position was. Again theses are just a few of the people I selected to talk about, I’m sure many of you can pick out other obvious ones.
NFL
2009 Draft
Pat White- taken 44th overall in 2nd round- It was fairly obvious Miami was going to do everything in their power to draft Pat White. He is the perfect Wildcat offense quarterback. White surprised teams with his draft workouts because of his throwing abilities. There were constantly people on ESPN saying if you didn’t watch Pat White throw the ball but instead just watched the ball through the air you would think the guy throwing it would be a first round pick. White can obviously run the ball which again is a strength for the Wildcat offense. Miami reached a little bit for White, but I think he would have been off the board by the 3rd round.
2008 Draft
Joe Flacco- taken 18th overall in 1st round- Yes its hard to turn down a 6’6, 230 pound quarterback with a great arm, until you hear he has been competing in the championship subdivision. Flacco was at The University of Pittsburgh before transferring to University of Delaware and during his time there proved nothing but how accurate he was throwing the ball. Flacco threw for 3300 yds, 18 tds, and 5ints his senior year. Once again everything sounds nice until you consider that the guy hasn’t really played anyone. Because of Flacco’s pre-draft workouts, Flacco made himself a top 5 quarterback draft pick. The Ravens taking him at 18 wasn’t a reach but it was a risk. They were hoping he could be the next Roethlisberger and so far this year he’s proven to be on the right path.
2007 Draft
This draft is really what got me to right this blog in the first place. TBrown and I disagree on the potential of Jamarcus Russel’s career. Also if you look back at the draft there were a number of people I could have talked about in this section. I picked three out the bunch.
Jamarcus Russell- taken #1 overall- This pick was a pick that had to be made by the Raiders. This is a situation where you have to take Russell. Russell coming out of LSU was like Greg Oden coming out of Ohio State---the potential for both was limitless. Russell is 6’6, 260 pounds and has an arm like a cannon. Russell improved all three years he was at LSU and finished with 28 touchdowns the last year he was there. With the potential though, comes the great risk. Russell was not a reach at number 1, nor was he even a bad pick, but its obvious the Raiders were drafting him based on his potential and not his actual skill set (reminiscent of Darrius Heyward-Bey.) Yes I know Jamarcus is much more talented than Heyward-Bey but you get the point. Russell has yet to reach his potential or to even look like he should have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, but maybe one day? I personally think if you ever have Jamarcus Russell as your starting QB in the NFL, than your team is probably going to a sub-.500 team. I know TBrown will disagree with me. Lets hear some debate on this one.
Ted Ginn- taken #9 overall- Ginn was drafted because he was fast, very fast. Ginn was a good receiver at Ohio State but everyone knew he would best be used as a kick returner. The Dolphins definitely reached for Ginn, but they thought he could come in and make an impact immediately on special teams and then eventually become a solid WR. Ginn has yet to prove anything to me other than he can occasionally stretch the field. Though I do think that the Wildcat offense isn’t going to allow any WR to put up huge number, I still don’t think Ginn is the guy. If all the Dolphins were wanting was a really fast receiver that could help special teams as well, I would have taken Robert Meachem. With Meachem they would have gotten a much better quality receiver than Ginn.
Chris Henry- taken #50 overall 2nd round- Henry ran a 4.3 at the draft combine and had a lackluster college career. Henry was in the second round because he ran a 4.3. I can’t really consider the Titans pick a reach because every team was willing to take Henry in the 2nd to 3rd round simply because of his 40 time. Obviously Henry has been pretty much a joke, other than seeing some special teams action.
Let me know what your thoughts are on drafting players strictly on potential. Part 2 to this article will come tomorrow night. I’ll talk about the NBA aspect of drafting on potential.
I looked at the NFL and NBA Drafts from 2007-2009 and picked out guys that I think we’re drafted on potential. Sure some of them had decent college careers but nowhere near worthy of how their draft position was. Again theses are just a few of the people I selected to talk about, I’m sure many of you can pick out other obvious ones.
NFL
2009 Draft
Pat White- taken 44th overall in 2nd round- It was fairly obvious Miami was going to do everything in their power to draft Pat White. He is the perfect Wildcat offense quarterback. White surprised teams with his draft workouts because of his throwing abilities. There were constantly people on ESPN saying if you didn’t watch Pat White throw the ball but instead just watched the ball through the air you would think the guy throwing it would be a first round pick. White can obviously run the ball which again is a strength for the Wildcat offense. Miami reached a little bit for White, but I think he would have been off the board by the 3rd round.
2008 Draft
Joe Flacco- taken 18th overall in 1st round- Yes its hard to turn down a 6’6, 230 pound quarterback with a great arm, until you hear he has been competing in the championship subdivision. Flacco was at The University of Pittsburgh before transferring to University of Delaware and during his time there proved nothing but how accurate he was throwing the ball. Flacco threw for 3300 yds, 18 tds, and 5ints his senior year. Once again everything sounds nice until you consider that the guy hasn’t really played anyone. Because of Flacco’s pre-draft workouts, Flacco made himself a top 5 quarterback draft pick. The Ravens taking him at 18 wasn’t a reach but it was a risk. They were hoping he could be the next Roethlisberger and so far this year he’s proven to be on the right path.
2007 Draft
This draft is really what got me to right this blog in the first place. TBrown and I disagree on the potential of Jamarcus Russel’s career. Also if you look back at the draft there were a number of people I could have talked about in this section. I picked three out the bunch.
Jamarcus Russell- taken #1 overall- This pick was a pick that had to be made by the Raiders. This is a situation where you have to take Russell. Russell coming out of LSU was like Greg Oden coming out of Ohio State---the potential for both was limitless. Russell is 6’6, 260 pounds and has an arm like a cannon. Russell improved all three years he was at LSU and finished with 28 touchdowns the last year he was there. With the potential though, comes the great risk. Russell was not a reach at number 1, nor was he even a bad pick, but its obvious the Raiders were drafting him based on his potential and not his actual skill set (reminiscent of Darrius Heyward-Bey.) Yes I know Jamarcus is much more talented than Heyward-Bey but you get the point. Russell has yet to reach his potential or to even look like he should have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, but maybe one day? I personally think if you ever have Jamarcus Russell as your starting QB in the NFL, than your team is probably going to a sub-.500 team. I know TBrown will disagree with me. Lets hear some debate on this one.
Ted Ginn- taken #9 overall- Ginn was drafted because he was fast, very fast. Ginn was a good receiver at Ohio State but everyone knew he would best be used as a kick returner. The Dolphins definitely reached for Ginn, but they thought he could come in and make an impact immediately on special teams and then eventually become a solid WR. Ginn has yet to prove anything to me other than he can occasionally stretch the field. Though I do think that the Wildcat offense isn’t going to allow any WR to put up huge number, I still don’t think Ginn is the guy. If all the Dolphins were wanting was a really fast receiver that could help special teams as well, I would have taken Robert Meachem. With Meachem they would have gotten a much better quality receiver than Ginn.
Chris Henry- taken #50 overall 2nd round- Henry ran a 4.3 at the draft combine and had a lackluster college career. Henry was in the second round because he ran a 4.3. I can’t really consider the Titans pick a reach because every team was willing to take Henry in the 2nd to 3rd round simply because of his 40 time. Obviously Henry has been pretty much a joke, other than seeing some special teams action.
Let me know what your thoughts are on drafting players strictly on potential. Part 2 to this article will come tomorrow night. I’ll talk about the NBA aspect of drafting on potential.
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