Drafting on Potential Part 1

When the time comes for your favorite team to draft, do you want them to take the guy with the most upside or the guy that can help you right away? Within the past few years it seems like more and more teams are drafting on potential rather than stats (from college.) When it comes to the NFL, a great NFL combine workout can jump a guy that’s not getting drafted all the way into the top few rounds. We all know what a sub-4.4 time can do for a guy. As far as the NBA sometimes all that matter is that you’re over 6’9, can play guard, and averaged 5 pppg in the Euroleague you played in. Don’t get me wrong plenty of teams are willing to take chances on NCAA Division 1 7’footers but these guys usually show their potential during their college year/years.

I looked at the NFL and NBA Drafts from 2007-2009 and picked out guys that I think we’re drafted on potential. Sure some of them had decent college careers but nowhere near worthy of how their draft position was. Again theses are just a few of the people I selected to talk about, I’m sure many of you can pick out other obvious ones.

NFL
2009 Draft

Pat White- taken 44th overall in 2nd round- It was fairly obvious Miami was going to do everything in their power to draft Pat White. He is the perfect Wildcat offense quarterback. White surprised teams with his draft workouts because of his throwing abilities. There were constantly people on ESPN saying if you didn’t watch Pat White throw the ball but instead just watched the ball through the air you would think the guy throwing it would be a first round pick. White can obviously run the ball which again is a strength for the Wildcat offense. Miami reached a little bit for White, but I think he would have been off the board by the 3rd round.



2008 Draft

Joe Flacco- taken 18th overall in 1st round- Yes its hard to turn down a 6’6, 230 pound quarterback with a great arm, until you hear he has been competing in the championship subdivision. Flacco was at The University of Pittsburgh before transferring to University of Delaware and during his time there proved nothing but how accurate he was throwing the ball. Flacco threw for 3300 yds, 18 tds, and 5ints his senior year. Once again everything sounds nice until you consider that the guy hasn’t really played anyone. Because of Flacco’s pre-draft workouts, Flacco made himself a top 5 quarterback draft pick. The Ravens taking him at 18 wasn’t a reach but it was a risk. They were hoping he could be the next Roethlisberger and so far this year he’s proven to be on the right path.



2007 Draft

This draft is really what got me to right this blog in the first place. TBrown and I disagree on the potential of Jamarcus Russel’s career. Also if you look back at the draft there were a number of people I could have talked about in this section. I picked three out the bunch.

Jamarcus Russell- taken #1 overall- This pick was a pick that had to be made by the Raiders. This is a situation where you have to take Russell. Russell coming out of LSU was like Greg Oden coming out of Ohio State---the potential for both was limitless. Russell is 6’6, 260 pounds and has an arm like a cannon. Russell improved all three years he was at LSU and finished with 28 touchdowns the last year he was there. With the potential though, comes the great risk. Russell was not a reach at number 1, nor was he even a bad pick, but its obvious the Raiders were drafting him based on his potential and not his actual skill set (reminiscent of Darrius Heyward-Bey.) Yes I know Jamarcus is much more talented than Heyward-Bey but you get the point. Russell has yet to reach his potential or to even look like he should have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, but maybe one day? I personally think if you ever have Jamarcus Russell as your starting QB in the NFL, than your team is probably going to a sub-.500 team. I know TBrown will disagree with me. Lets hear some debate on this one.



Ted Ginn- taken #9 overall- Ginn was drafted because he was fast, very fast. Ginn was a good receiver at Ohio State but everyone knew he would best be used as a kick returner. The Dolphins definitely reached for Ginn, but they thought he could come in and make an impact immediately on special teams and then eventually become a solid WR. Ginn has yet to prove anything to me other than he can occasionally stretch the field. Though I do think that the Wildcat offense isn’t going to allow any WR to put up huge number, I still don’t think Ginn is the guy. If all the Dolphins were wanting was a really fast receiver that could help special teams as well, I would have taken Robert Meachem. With Meachem they would have gotten a much better quality receiver than Ginn.



Chris Henry- taken #50 overall 2nd round- Henry ran a 4.3 at the draft combine and had a lackluster college career. Henry was in the second round because he ran a 4.3. I can’t really consider the Titans pick a reach because every team was willing to take Henry in the 2nd to 3rd round simply because of his 40 time. Obviously Henry has been pretty much a joke, other than seeing some special teams action.



Let me know what your thoughts are on drafting players strictly on potential. Part 2 to this article will come tomorrow night. I’ll talk about the NBA aspect of drafting on potential.